WASHINGTON, D.C. – One day before voters head to the polls for the 2018 midterm elections, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund and Latino Decisions released the results of the final wave of its 10-week national tracking poll of Latino registered voters.
Results from the tenth week of the NALEO Educational Fund/Latino Decisions National Weekly Political Tracking Poll offer exclusive insights into the Latino electorate this year, including early voting rates, opinions on the Central American migrant crisis, political activity participation, campaign and party outreach, and more.
Each week a fresh sample of 250 registered voters was added and combined with the previous 250 interviews to create a rolling average of the electorate, consistent with most tracking polls methodology. This week’s poll of Latino registered voters nationwide was conducted by Latino Decisions from October 24–November 4, 2018 (with a margin of error of 4.4 percent).
“The Latino electorate is poised to make history this year, with NALEO Educational Fund analysis projecting that more than 7.8 million Latino voters will cast ballots in Election 2018,” stated Arturo Vargas, NALEO Educational Fund chief executive officer. “We know that any advancement we make as candidates and voters this year will be despite the dismal outreach efforts we saw from our nation’s political parties, campaigns and candidates. Latino voters did not sit idly by as we were ignored in yet another election year, choosing instead to take our future in our own hands by encouraging those around us to register and vote in Election 2018.”
Key findings include:
- Latinos are already making their voices heard in Election 2018. Interest in Election 2018 is high. More than one in four (25 percent) Latinos have already voted early this year, with several counties nationwide already reporting unprecedented early voting turnout numbers. Survey results show that Latino voters understand how important it is to participate in Election 2018, with 67 percent stating that voting in Election 2018 is more important than it was in the 2016 presidential election.
- In the absence of significant outreach from campaigns and candidates, Latinos opted to self-mobilize this election. With only half of Latino voters contacted in the lead up to Election Day (50 percent), the Latino community has stepped up by self-mobilizing in Election 2018. More than 68 percent of Latino voters surveyed reported that they had encouraged a family member or friend to register or vote in this week’s elections.
- Latino voters have attended rallies and protests, in addition to donating to candidates and campaigns in Election 2018. We are seeing Latino voters engaged in an array of political actions this year. One in five Latino voters (20 percent) attended a rally or campaign event in support of a candidate, with another 15 percent reporting they had attended a protest or demonstration against a candidate or issue. Other activities include donating money to a campaign or candidate (17 percent) or volunteering to help a candidate or voter outreach drive (16 percent).
- Immigration gained the most traction among Latino voters in the lead up to Election Day. In week one, immigration ranked as the third most important issue for Latino voters (17 percent), following stopping President Trump and the Republican Agenda (22 percent) and lowering healthcare costs (20 percent). The issue surged to number one over the course of the ten-week tracking poll, with 28 percent of Latino voters stating that protecting immigrant rights is the most important issue to them this election.
- The migrant caravan crisis along the border is having an impact on Latino voters. More than 84 percent of Latino voters believe that Central American immigrants who are coming to the border are doing so to flee violence in their home countries. Comments made about this group by President Donald Trump have hit close to home for Latino voters, with 75 percent stating that the issue has made them more interested in participating in Election 2018.
As we near Election 2018, NALEO Educational Fund will continue its efforts to ensure that Latino voters have the information necessary to make their voices heard at the ballot box. These efforts include operating our toll-free bilingual hotline 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (1-888-839-8682) that provides Latino voters with information on every aspect of the electoral process, from registering to vote, to voter ID requirements, to finding their polling place. On Election Day, the hotline will have extended hours 6 am EST to 11 pm EST) and be connected to the Election Protection efforts and 1-866-OUR-VOTE, offering Latino voters nationwide a bilingual resource to get assistance and report any problems they may experience at the polls.
To view the methodology and full toplines for week 10 of the 10-week tracking poll, see below:
About NALEO Educational Fund
NALEO Educational Fund is the nation’s leading non-partisan, non-profit organization that facilitates the full participation of Latinos in the American political process, from citizenship to public service.
About Latino Decisions
Latino Decisions is the nation’s leading polling and research firm on Latino Americans, being called the “gold-standard in Latino American polling” by Time Magazine, and has implemented its weekly political tracking poll of Latino voters every cycle since 2010.