New Poll: 74% of CA Latino Voters Plan to Vote in March 2020 Primary

Nov 15, 2019
11:01 AM
Originally published at Latino Decisions

The Latino Community Foundation (LCF) and Latino Decisions announced the results of their California statewide Latino poll that found 74 percent of registered Latino voters are certain they will vote in the presidential primary on March 3. California is the largest prize of the Democratic primary contests with more than 400 pledged delegates up for grabs.  California also has the largest number of Latino eligible voters —7.7 million— of any state.

The poll also found that a strong majority (76%) of Latinos are concerned about racism against them. Eight in 10 believe white supremacist groups pose a threat to the country. This same sentiment is what propelled a wave of voters and Latinos to run for office on the heels of Prop 187 in 1994. It is now fueling a record number of voter registrations in the state. Latinos in California are reacting to racism with increased political engagement.

“With over 7 million eligible voters, Latinos are poised to decide who will be the candidate to run against Trump in November. The candidates who fail to engage Latinos in California, the largest Latino voting bloc in the country, do so at their own risk,” said Jacqueline Martinez Garcel, CEO of LCF. “We are paying attention to who shows up to listen and connect with our communities. We are also registering to vote in record numbers. In California, 81 percent of eligible residents are registered to vote, the highest percentage since 1952. The number of registered Latino voters is at all-time high, with nearly five million now registered to vote.”

“In 2018, we witnessed a 93% increase in the Latino vote in California from just four years earlier. In 2020, we are expecting yet another massive increase in the Latino vote, starting in the March primary. Voters are concerned about the current political and anti-immigrant climate we face as a nation and they are getting ready to hit the polls in 2020,” said Matt Barreto, Co-founder of Latino Decisions. “It is very important for all candidates to come to California and engage the Latino community if they want to win our votes.”

The California Democratic Party will be hosting a historic Real America Presidential Forum in collaboration with Univision at its convention in Long Beach, on Saturday, November 16, both former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will not be attending.

Other key results from the Poll:

  • The poll found that among registered Latino voters who plan to participate in the Democratic primary in California, 31 percent would vote for Senator Bernie Sanders. The other candidates rounding out the top five are former Vice President Joe Biden, 22 percent; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 11 percent; former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, 9 percent; and California Sen. Kamala Harris, 8 percent.
  • A generational split emerged between younger and older Latino voters. Among Latino voters age 18 to 39 —the largest share of the Latino electorate— Sanders was preferred by 38 percent compared to 15 percent for Biden. Among Latino voters over the age of 50, Biden was preferred 35 percent to 19 percent for Sanders.
  • The poll revealed that the top three issues for Latinos going into the March primary are lower health care costs, more affordable housing, and improving wages and income.
  • An overwhelming 90 percent said they agreed that a pathway to citizenship should be created when asked if a permanent pathway to citizenship should be created for DREAMERS. California is home to more than 200,000 DREAMERS.
  • When asked if they would vote in favor of ballot initiative to alter how commercial properties are taxed, 80 percent of Latino registered voters said they would vote in favor of it.

The full pol is below:

Poll Methodology

Latino Community Foundation commissioned Latino Decisions to conduct the poll. Latino Decisions surveyed 807 Latino registered voters statewide in California with an oversample of millennials between the ages of 18 and 34. The oversample does not affect the overall poll as it is weighted to the correct proportion by age, however it provides for a larger more reliable sample to analyze when focusing on younger Latino voters. The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 7, 2019. Interviews were collected via landline, cell phone, and web.  The phone portion was conducted by live interviewers who were bilingual and administered the survey in language of preference of respondents. The online portion was conducted in a respondent self-administered format, and the survey and invitation was available to respondents in English or Spanish. The full data are weighted to match the adult population in the 2017 Census ACS 1-year data file for age, gender, education, nativity, ancestry, and voter registration status. A post-stratification raking algorithm was used to balance each category to the ACS estimates. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.