Where Does the Latino Vote Go Next in Upcoming Democratic Primaries?

Mar 6, 2020
10:55 AM

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden greets customers at the Buttercup Diner during a campaign stop in Oakland, Calif., Tuesday, March 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

So Super Tuesday happened and as of this posting, the delegate count has Joe Biden with 637 delegates and Bernie Sanders with 559 (via the AP, and yes, this can change, so keep checking here).

It is safe to say that if Sanders did not do so well with Latino voters in the West (California, Colorado and Utah) and Texas, he would have had a much bigger delegate deficit. As NBC Latino noted, “Latino voters boosted Sen. Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday, coming through for him after a big investment in the community by his presidential campaign.”

Let’s break down Super Tuesday as much as we can and then share where this all goes next. (FYI, for our previous pre-Super Tuesday vote, go here).

Super Tuesday Latino Voter Summary

Some Exit Polls

California (Sanders win)

Texas (Biden win)

Colorado (Sanders win)

Utah (Sanders win)

Virginia (Biden win)

Massachusetts (Biden win)

North Carolina (Biden win)

Oklahoma (Biden win)

Arkansas (Biden win)

Note: The state abbreviation for Arkansas is AR and not AK.

Tennessee (Biden win)

Minnesota (Biden win)

Not Applicable (all Latino % at 2 or lower)

Alabama (Biden win)

Maine (Biden win)

Vermont (Sanders win)

Upcoming Primaries (March 10)

All data sourced to Pew.

These March 10 states do not have states with big Latino eligible voter populations (except for parts of Washington and maybe Idaho), but it does have a mix of states across the country, except for the East Coast.

Washington: Did you know that 7.7% of Washington’s eligible voter population is Latino (411,000 out of a total 5,359,000)? Granted, the coronavirus scare might have an impact on the state’s turnout (the state doesn’t think so), but it is interesting to note that this state is seeing a growing Latino population. Let’s check the congressional district breakdown:

Washington’s 4th congressional district (Yakima and Tri-Cities areas) has a 23.1 % share of eligible Latino voters.

Idaho: This is another state where people might know has a growing Latino population. Pew says that “8.1% of the eligible voter population is Latino (101,000 out of a total 1,254,000).”

Here are the two districts:

Michigan: According to Pew, “3.5% of the eligible voter population is Latino (261,000 out of a total 7,549,000). However, that share varies depending on the state’s congressional districts.

For example, Michigan’s 2nd congressional district (on the state’s western side) has 37,000 eligible Latino voters. This district currently has a Republican representative.

The next top district is Michigan’s 13th district, which is metro Detroit. That has about 21,000 eligible Latino voters, and on a recent reporting trip to the city’s predominantly Latino Southwest neighborhood, voters shared their thoughts:

North Dakota: With one at-large district, North Dakota’s eligible Latino voter population of 17,000 represents 3% of the total eligible voter population.

Missouri: According to Pew, “2.7% of the eligible voter population is Latino (125,000 out of a total 4,638,000).”

These are the congressional district breakdowns:

The top congressional district is the fifth, with 34,000 eligible Latino voters. This district is part of metro Kansas City. Its representative is Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who is African American.

Mississippi: According to Pew, “1.6% of the eligible voter population is Latino (36,000 out of a total 2,240,000)”, but as the congressional districts show, that average varies, with the state’s 4th district (on the Gulf of Mexico) showing a 2.7% eligible Latino voter share.

We will do a post about the March 17 states after the March 10 primaries