NALEO Tracking Poll of Registered Latino Voters (Week 7): Biden 68%, Trump 25%

Oct 20, 2020
12:34 PM

In this January 11, 2020 file photo, a Mariachi band waits to perform before a campaign event with former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

The seventh week of the nine-week 2020 Latino Weekly Tracking Poll from NALEO Educational Fund said that 68 percent of respondents planned on supporting Vice President Joe Biden, with 25 percent planing on voting for President Donald Trump.

The poll, conducted by Latino Decisions for NALEO from October 12– 17, has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent. By the end of the poll’s nine-week window, it would have surveyed 3,700 unique Latino voters about their presidential preferences and other issues facing the country, including the COVID-19 crisis, which is listed as the top issue for Latino voters.

Since the poll’s first week, Biden has seen a three-point increase in support, with Trump seeing a one-point increase. The latest 68-25 breakdown favoring Biden is similar to 2016 exit polling that showed Hillary Clinton with 66 percent of support to Trump’s 28 percent. In 2012, Barack Obama gained 71 percent of the Latino vote to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent.

According to the latest breakdowns, Biden gained 70 percent or more of Latino support from the following subgroups: likely voters (70 percent), second-generation Latinos (74 percent), Spanish-dominant Latinos (71 percent), Latinos aged 18-34 (70 percent), Latino voters with some college (70 percent), Latinos who lost their job this year (73 percent) and Latinos who identify as Catholic (73 percent).

Trump has the highest support with likely voters (28 percent), Latino voters in battleground states (29 percent), first-generation Latinos (27 percent), Latino men (28 percent), Latinos over 50 (28 percent) and Latinos with college degrees (32 percent).

A media release about the Week 7 poll shared the following findings:


  • COVID-19, healthcare, racism and discrimination, and jobs remain the most important issues among survey respondents, with the following breakdown:
    • Responding to COVID-19: 52 percent (high point in the survey)
    • Lowering healthcare costs: 29 percent
    • Jobs and wages: 26 percent
    • Racism and discrimination: 23 percent
    • Immigration reform and protecting immigrant rights: 20 percent
  • Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump with respect to whom respondents trust in handling the following issues:
    • Access to affordable healthcare
      • Biden (66 percent)
      • Trump (18 percent)
    • Improving the economy
      • Biden (52 percent)
      • Trump (29 percent)
    • Immigration reform
      • Biden (59 percent)
      • Trump (21 percent)
    • Bringing the country together
      • Biden (61 percent)
      • Trump (18 percent)
  • 73 percent of survey respondents believe President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19 because he failed to take the proper precautions and was acting irresponsibly
  • 73 percent (high point in the survey) disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the COVID-19 response
  • With Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s passing, 64 percent (low point in the survey) of survey respondents say that the Senate should wait until after the election to let the next president make the nomination for her replacement
    • 36 percent (high point in the survey) say the Senate should vote on President Trump’s nominee
  • Of the 92 percent of survey respondents who say they have completed the census, most respondents (45 percent this week) say they have responded online

Voter Enthusiasm, Disinformation, and Election Preferences

  • 16 percent (up 9 points from last week) of respondents say they have already voted
  • With 66 percent of survey respondents saying they are almost certain they will vote in 2020, 80 percent are either just as or more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than they were in 2016, with 60 percent say they are more enthusiastic about 2020
  • Survey respondents are split on voting method, with 49 percent expressing a preference to vote by mail and 51 percent saying they prefer to vote in person
    • 78 percent (high point in the survey) say they are familiar with how to request a mail-in-ballot
    • Among the respondents who plan to vote in person, 40 percent (low point in the survey) intend to vote early before November 3
    • For those who do plan to vote by mail, 78 percent plan on voting right away
  • A third of survey respondents (33 percent) say they do not trust that mail-in-ballots will be correctly delivered back to county elections departments
  • 71 percent of survey respondents think ballot drop boxes are a good idea
  • 75 percent (high point in the survey) of survey respondents are concerned that family or friends are being sent digitally altered videos meant to mislead the public about the presidential candidates
  • Although 89 percent of respondents believe they will personally have the opportunity to freely and fairly vote in the election, 65 percent are concerned that if Vice President Joe Biden wins, there will not be an orderly transition of power

Voter Engagement

  • 84 percent of respondents say they are following the news of the presidential election
  • 77 percent (low point in the survey) of survey respondents said they discussed politics with family and friends
  • 48 percent of respondents said they have discussed a candidate or political issue on social media
  • 68 percent of survey respondents say they encouraged family or friends to register to vote
  • 56 percent (high point in the survey) of respondents have been contacted by a representative from a political party, campaign, or other organization in the lead up to Election 2020 (highest point in 2016 was 46 percent)
    • Of those who said they had been contacted this election cycle, 60 percent indicate someone from the Democratic Party contacted them, 33 percent indicate someone from the Republican Party, and 26 percent indicate someone from a non-partisan or civic organization

COVID-19 Challenges

  • In addition to the 29 percent of this week’s survey respondents who say they know someone who has died from COVID-19, 26 percent say they have had trouble getting access to food, medicine, or basic household needs, as a result of the pandemic, and 41 percent say they had to use savings or retirement money to pay for expenses
  • 29 percent (high point in the survey) of survey respondents have lost their job as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic

Here are the toplines of the Week 7 poll:

Editor’s Note: Mattt Barreto is a co-founder of Latino Decisions and was hired by the Biden campaign “to direct polling and focus group research for Latino voters,” as noted by his website. He has gone on record with Latino Rebels to say that he is not working on or involved with any other Latino Decisions work during his time with the Biden campaign.