What Really Happened With Central Florida Latino Voters in 2020?

Jan 19, 2021
5:41 PM

On Tuesday morning, Alianza for Progress, a political action committee advocating to empower Latinos and Puerto Ricans in the state of Florida, hosted a press call to discuss its precinct-level analysis of the presidential election in the state.

According to a media release, Alianza “conducted this analysis by particularly focusing on the results in predominantly Latino and Puerto Rican precincts in Central Florida, documenting through extensive analysis the behavior patterns of those voters over the past several elections.”

“While the overwhelmingly pro-Democrat Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida was not enough to cinch a statewide win for Joe Biden and the Democratic ticket, the data from the elections point to both opportunities and challenges the next slate of progressive candidates will face here,” the release added.

The following are some takeaways from the analysis:

  • “During the 2020 presidential election, total voter turnout in the analyzed precincts was above 70%—a record breaking number that is congruent with statewide and national turnout trends. When compared to 2016, total turnout in these precincts increased from an averaged 69.5% to 70.5%.”
  • “Joe Biden earned a record number of votes in almost every county we analyzed – all but Osceola. In fact, when compared to Clinton’s 2016 performance, Biden gained a total of 38,493 votes in these 144 predominantly Latino precincts in the I-4 corridor (9,040 in Seminole, 8,559 in Polk, 7,217 in Orange, 5,580 in Hillsborough, 4,363 in Volusia, and 4,296 in Pasco). This is primarily a result of record turnout numbers among Latino and Puerto Rican voters, including demographic groups that are often deemed as low- propensity voters such as Gen Z and Millennial Latinos.”
  • “Observing the precinct data, a clear trend that is hard to ignore quickly emerged: The higher the proportion of Puerto Rican voters in a given precinct, the higher the proportional support for Joe Biden was in the 2020 presidential election in that precinct.”
  • “While Trump made proportional gains among Latinos in the I-4 corridor, these gains were limited to certain counties: Orange, Osceola, and Hillsborough. 2020 precinct data from the other counties in the I-4 corridor (Seminole, Polk, Volusia, and Pasco) show Biden either making small gains or maintaining 2016 support levels, including a 3.5% increase in support in Seminole and a 0.3% increase in support in Polk and Volusia. Such gains among Latino voters in Seminole county definitely helped to flip it blue for the first time since 1948.”

The complete report is here: