The results from the eighth week of the nine-week 2020 Latino Weekly Tracking Poll released Tuesday morning by NALEO Educational Fund said that 79 percent of Latinos who voted early before Election Day expressed support for Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden.
In a set of crosstabs that take into account around 3,300 unique Latino voters surveyed over the last eight week, Biden got 79 percent of respondents who already voted (AV) with President Donald Trump getting 18 percent. According to NALEO, 34 percent (up 18 points from Week 7) of respondents say they have already voted.
Overall, Latino registered voter support for Biden was at 68 percent (the same as Week 7 of the poll), with Trump getting 24 percent (a one-point drop from Week 7). Biden’s support stayed steady at 68 percent with likely Latino voters, while Trump saw a bump to 29 percent. The latest 68-24 breakdown favoring Biden is similar to 2016 exit polling that showed Hillary Clinton with 66 percent of support to Trump’s 28 percent. In 2012, Barack Obama gained 71 percent of the Latino vote to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent.
Across the crosstabs, Biden also saw strong support with second-generation Latinos (76 percent), English-dominant Latinos (70 percent), Latina voters (71 percent), Latino voters aged 18-34 (72 percent), voters over 50 years old (70 percent), Latinos with a high shool diploma or some high school (75 percent), Latinos impacted by a COVID-19 illness (75 percent), Latinos who lost their jobs (71 percent), and Latinos who identify as Catholic (71 percent).
Trump’s best showing was with third-generation Latinos (33 percent), Latino voters aged 33-49 (33 percent), Latino male voters (29 percent) and Latino voters in battleground states (29 percent).
The poll, conducted by Latino Decisions from October 19-24, has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent. By the end of the nine-week tracking period, the poll will have contacted 3,700 unique Latino voters.
A NALEO release about the poll shared the following Week 8 key findings:
- Vice President Joe Biden saw a 41-point advantage in favorability over President Donald Trump, and Senator Kamala Harris saw a 24-point advantage in favorability over Vice President Mike Pence
- 68 percent of survey respondents plan on voting for Vice President Joe Biden, and 24 percent plan on voting for President Donald Trump
Voter Enthusiasm, Disinformation, and Election Preferences
- 34 percent (up 18 points from last week) of respondents say they have already voted
- Alongside those who have already voted, 52 percent of survey respondents say they are almost certain they will vote in 2020
- 82 percent of respondents are either just as or more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than they were in 2016, with 62 percent saying they are more enthusiastic about 2020
- Survey respondents indicate that of remaining Latino voters, 37 percent prefer to vote by mail, and 63 percent prefer to vote in person
- 79 percent (high point in the survey) say they are familiar with how to request a mail-in-ballot
- Among the respondents who plan to vote in person, 55 percent plan to vote on Election Day
- For those who still plan to vote by mail, 55 percent plan on voting right away, with 45 percent planning on voting-by-mail closer to Election Day
- Nearly a third of survey respondents (32 percent) say they do not trust that mail-in-ballots will be correctly delivered back to county elections departments
- 71 percent of survey respondents think ballot drop boxes are a good idea
- 77 percent (high point in the survey) of survey respondents are concerned that family or friends are being sent digitally altered videos meant to mislead the public about the presidential candidates
- Although 93 percent of respondents believe they will personally have the opportunity to freely and fairly vote in the election, 71 percent (up six points from last week) are concerned that if Vice President Joe Biden wins, there will not be an orderly transition of power
- 85 percent of respondents say they are following the news of the presidential election
- 81 percent of survey respondents said they discussed politics with family and friends
- 53 percent of respondents said they have discussed a candidate or political issue on social media
- 76 percent (high point in the survey) of survey respondents say they encouraged family or friends to register to vote
- 61 percent (high point in the survey) of respondents have been contacted by a representative from a political party, campaign, or other organization in the lead up to Election 2020 (highest point in 2016 was 46 percent)
- Of those who said they had been contacted this election cycle, 56 percent indicate someone from the Democratic Party contacted them, 39 percent indicate someone from the Republican Party, and 30 percent indicate someone from a non-partisan or civic organization
- COVID-19, healthcare, racism and discrimination, and jobs remain the most important issues among survey respondents, with the following breakdown:
- Responding to COVID-19: 49 percent
- Lowering healthcare costs: 32 percent
- Jobs and wages: 28 percent
- Racism and discrimination: 25 percent
- Immigration reform and protecting immigrant rights: 22 percent
- Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump with respect to whom respondents trust in handling the following issues:
- Access to affordable healthcare
- Biden (68 percent)
- Trump (16 percent)
- Improving the economy
- Biden (55 percent)
- Trump (30 percent)
- Immigration reform
- Biden (62 percent)
- Trump (18 percent)
- Bringing the country together
- Biden (65 percent)
- Trump (16 percent)
- Access to affordable healthcare
- 76 percent of survey respondents believe President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19 because he failed to take the proper precautions and was acting irresponsibly
- 69 percent disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the COVID-19 response
- With Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s passing, 65 percent of survey respondents say that the Senate should wait until after the election to let the next president make the nomination for her replacement
- 35 percent say the Senate should vote on President Trump’s nominee
- In addition to the 40 percent (highest point in the survey, up 11 points from last week) of this week’s survey respondents who say they know someone who has died from COVID-19, 32 percent (up six points from last week) say they have had trouble getting access to food, medicine, or basic household needs, as a result of the pandemic, and 47 percent (highest point in the survey, up six points from last week) say they had to use savings or retirement money to pay for expenses
- 29 percent of survey respondents have lost their job as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic
- 18 percent (high point in the survey) of respondents have been sick with COVID-19
The Week 8 toplines are here:
Editor’s Note: Mattt Barreto is a co-founder of Latino Decisions and was hired by the Biden campaign “to direct polling and focus group research for Latino voters,” as noted by his website. He has gone on record with Latino Rebels to say that he is not working on or involved with any other Latino Decisions work during his time with the Biden campaign.