We thought that when we raised a red flag earlier this year about dubious polls that are trying to make you believe that Donald Trump is doing really well with Latino voters, all this nonsense would go away, but sadly, it has not. A new poll conducted on May 10 by One America News Network and Gravis Marketing is leading so-called news outlets like The Daily Caller to produce headlines such as this one: SHOCK POLL: Trump Leads Hillary Among Hispanic Voters. Red State also followed suit with this headline: ¿QUE? Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton By 10 Points Among Hispanics?.
There’s even video to “prove” that Trump is leading Clinton by 10 points with Latino voters. (FYI, although close, Trump is still seen as losing to Clinton in the overall poll.)
But just like previous times, what these sites are not telling you is that the sample size of the poll when it comes to Latino voters is so freaking small, the results are just not real or accurate. They are just fantasy.
Take the case of this current ONA/Gravis poll. Here is what you really need to know and what TDC and Red State aren’t telling you:
The poll “conducted a random survey of 1,574 registered voters across the United States.” According to the poll’s own toplines, 10% of those voters identified themselves as Hispanic using the following two questions:
So that would mean that 157.4 (round down to 157) voters in the poll identified themselves as Latino. And if Trump got 55% of those Latino voters, that would mean 87 Latino voters chose Trump (we rounded up), with only 60 Latino voters picking Clinton. And (and this is an important “and”), the poll also said that 57% of ALL the registered voters in the poll are over 50 years old, while only 12% of the voters in the poll were under 29 years old. What can you conclude from this? About 50 viejitos like Trump. Also, the sample used doesn’t even reflect the actual Latino vote in the United States right now. This comes from Pew Research:
Hispanic millennials will account for nearly half (44%) of the record 27.3 million Hispanic eligible voters projected for 2016—a share greater than any other racial or ethnic group of voters, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
The large footprint of Latino millennial eligible voters reflects the oversized importance of youth in the U.S.-born Latino population and as a source of Latino eligible voter growth. The median age among the nation’s 35 million U.S.-born Latinos is only 19 (Stepler and Brown, 2015), and Latino youth will be the main driver of growth among Latino eligible voters over the next two decades. Between 2012 and 2016, about 3.2 million young U.S.-citizen Latinos will have advanced to adulthood and become eligible to vote, according to Pew Research Center projections. Nearly all of them are U.S. born—on an annual basis, some 803,000 U.S.-born Latinos reached adulthood in recent years.
Another way to determine why this poll is complete bullshit is the following: the sample size is way too small. This tool explains a bit more. We plugged in the Latino numbers from the poll below and came up with the following:
From those numbers you can conclude this:
If the lower limit is 0 or less (a negative number), there is no significant difference between the ballot numbers for candidates A and B. If the lower limit is greater than 0 (a positive number), there is a significant difference between the ballot numbers.
Also included is the probability of candidate A leading candidate B that is not the result of sampling error. There may not be a significant difference between the ballot numbers at the 95% confidence level, but the probability of an actual lead is calculated.
In other words, this poll gets a No Mames from Gollum. Hit it.
Now that we have determined that the ONA/Gravis poll when it comes to Latino voters is a crock, here is a link to a much more established organization that provides better insight into Trump’s Latino problem. It’s called Gallup. They polled between 1,173 and 1,236 Latinos the from January through March. Have you heard of Gallup?
Presidential candidate Donald Trump has a major image problem among U.S. Hispanics, with 77% saying they view him unfavorably and just 12% viewing him favorably. This gives Trump by far the most negative image among Hispanics of any of the four Republican candidates. He also has a much more negative image among Hispanics than the two Democratic candidates.
Finally an online poll of 8,000 (yes, 8,000 Latinos) conducted in April had it this way: Clinton 62%, Other 26%, Trump 12%.